The cone is about where the center may go, not about how large the storm is or where its hazards will be. Use the NHC wind and warning graphics, and your local officials, for impacts.
What the cone is
According to the National Hurricane Center, the cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone. It is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles, not shown on the graphic, placed along the forecast track at 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96 and 120 hours.
How big it is
The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within it. For 2026, based on errors from 2021 to 2025, the Atlantic circle radii are 25 nautical miles at 12 hours, 39 at 24, 49 at 36, 62 at 48, 77 at 60, 95 at 72, 134 at 96 and 200 at 120 hours. For the eastern and central North Pacific they are 25, 37, 48, 56, 66, 78, 106 and 138 nautical miles.
Reading the wind graphic
NHC also publishes a graphic showing areas potentially affected by sustained winds of tropical storm force (orange) and hurricane force (red), based on the wind radii in the latest forecast advisory, with approximate areas under hurricane warnings (red), hurricane watches (pink), tropical storm warnings (blue) and tropical storm watches (yellow). NHC reminds users that the radii are the maximum possible extent in each quadrant, so not every location inside the shading will get those winds.
Where to go next
For what a watch or warning means and what to do, see our hurricane watch vs warning and preparation guides. For your own location, check Near Me and follow local emergency management.
Check your own location
See current official alerts and the impact for your ZIP code.
Common questions
What is the cone of uncertainty?
It is the popular name for the National Hurricane Center forecast cone, which represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone. It is formed by enclosing circles placed along the forecast track at 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96 and 120 hours.
What does the cone of probability mean?
The circle sizes are set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within them. The cone shows where the center may travel, not how large the storm is or where its winds and water will reach.
Does the cone show where the damage will be?
No. The NHC says impacts can extend well beyond the cone, which is why we also explain the wind graphic and storm surge warnings.
Sources
Reviewed by the Storm Incoming editorial team on October 27, 2026. Follow local emergency officials if their instructions differ.