See where the National Hurricane Center expects tropical development over the next 2 and 7 days
The NHC tropical weather outlook gives the formation chance, the odds a tropical cyclone develops. It is not a landfall or local-impact probability.
No areas are being watched for development right now
Official outlook map
Highlighted areas show where formation may occur. They are not forecast cones or impact zones. A map with no colored areas means no formation is expected in that period.
How to read the Tropical Weather Outlook
The National Hurricane Center marks areas where a tropical cyclone could form and shows the outlook for the next two days and the next seven days. A marked area is a chance of formation, not a forecast track. Even a high chance says nothing yet about where a storm would go or what it would do near you.
When nothing is marked, the NHC text outlook says tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 and the Eastern Pacific season from May 15 to November 30, so quiet outlooks are normal near the ends of those dates.
Low, medium and high chance: what the colors mean
The National Hurricane Center gives the chance of tropical cyclone formation in 10% steps and groups it into three categories.
| Category | Chance of formation | Color |
|---|---|---|
| Low | 0 to 30% | Yellow |
| Medium | 40 to 60% | Orange |
| High | 70 to 100% | Red |
Source: National Hurricane Center, Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook.
Outlook, forecast cone and advisory: which one is it?
Outlook: an area where a storm could form. No track yet.
Forecast cone and advisory: issued once a tropical cyclone exists. The cone shows where the center of a named or numbered system may travel, and advisories carry the watches and warnings.
If a watch or warning is in effect for your area, see hurricane watch vs warning and what to do in a hurricane warning. If an outlook area is marked near you, this is a good time to review your hurricane plan.
Common questions
How often does the Hurricane Center update the outlook?
The National Hurricane Center issues the Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook every six hours, and again whenever it issues a special outlook. For the Atlantic that is 2 am, 8 am, 2 pm and 8 pm Eastern Daylight Time (1, 7, 1 and 7 on Eastern Standard Time). For the eastern Pacific it is 5 am, 11 am, 5 pm and 11 pm Pacific Daylight Time.
Where is the hurricane forecast for the Atlantic and the Pacific?
Before a storm exists, the forecast is this outlook: where a tropical cyclone could form in the next two and seven days, in the Atlantic and in the eastern and central Pacific. Once a storm forms, the National Hurricane Center issues advisories with a forecast track and cone, which appear on our hurricanes page.
Is the outlook a forecast of where a hurricane will hit?
No. The outlook gives the chance that a tropical cyclone forms. It does not say where a storm would go, so check alerts for your location and follow the advisories if a storm forms.