Use model maps to see how much forecasts disagree, not to pick a favorite line. For decisions, use the NHC official forecast and your local warnings.
| Model | What it is | Resolution | How often it runs |
|---|---|---|---|
| GFS (American) | Global Forecast System, a global weather model | About 13 km | Every 6 hours |
| ECMWF (European) | The global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, often called the Euro | About 9 km | Every 12 hours |
| GFEX | NHC track consensus: the average of the GFS and ECMWF | Consensus | Not applicable |
| TVCN | NHC track consensus of several models, including the GFS and ECMWF | Consensus | Not applicable |
The two models people ask about
The GFS, the Global Forecast System, is run about every 6 hours at roughly 13 km resolution, according to the National Hurricane Center. The ECMWF, from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, is run about every 12 hours at roughly 9 km resolution. The NHC uses both, along with hurricane-specific regional models, as guidance when its forecasters write the official forecast.
Which model is more accurate
It changes from season to season. In the NHC 2024 verification report, the official forecast beat all of the guidance models at 96 and 120 hours, and the best models overall were the consensus aids. Among individual models the GFS was the best at 96 and 120 hours that year. Across 2022 to 2024 the ECMWF was the best individual model, though it had about 5% lower skill than the official forecasts and consensus aids at some forecast times.
Why the official forecast comes first
The NHC says that on average its official forecasts have smaller errors than any individual model. The forecaster weighs the models, which is why the NHC advises using its products and the local National Weather Service rather than relying solely on model output. The official forecast was also more consistent from update to update than the GFS and ECMWF over 2022 to 2024.
Why the European model is hard to see for free
The NHC says public access to the ECMWF is restricted under data-provider agreements. Many free hurricane sites therefore show only part of it, or show the GFS and other models instead. Check which model a map is drawing and what time it ran before you compare lines.
How to use model maps
Look at how far the lines spread, not where one line ends. A tight bunch means the models agree. A wide fan means the forecast is uncertain. Then compare with the NHC forecast cone and the watches and warnings for your area. Our spaghetti models guide explains how to read the lines.
Check your own location
See current official alerts and the impact for your ZIP code.
Common questions
What is the European hurricane model called?
The ECMWF, from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. People often call it the Euro model.
Which hurricane model is the most accurate?
No single model wins every season. In the NHC 2024 verification the official forecast and consensus models did best, and over 2022 to 2024 the ECMWF was the best individual model. The NHC says its official forecast has smaller errors, on average, than any individual model.
Is the European or the American hurricane model more accurate?
Over 2022 to 2024 the NHC found the ECMWF was the best individual model, but in 2024 alone the GFS was the best of the top individual models at 96 and 120 hours. Both lagged the official forecast and consensus models at some times.
What is the GFS hurricane model?
The Global Forecast System, a global weather model the NHC lists at about 13 km resolution and run every 6 hours.
Why can I not see the full European model for free?
The NHC says public access to the ECMWF is restricted under data-provider agreements, so free sites often show only part of it.
What is a consensus hurricane model?
A forecast that combines several models. The NHC lists GFEX as the average of the GFS and ECMWF tracks, and TVCN as a track consensus that includes both among others.
Are spaghetti models the same as the European model?
No. A spaghetti plot draws many model tracks or ensemble members on one map. The European and GFS models can each be among the lines.
Sources
Reviewed by the Storm Incoming editorial team on October 28, 2026. Follow local emergency officials if their instructions differ.