No single model line is the official forecast. Use the NHC forecast, its issue time and local warnings for decisions.
What the lines are
Each line is one forecast model, or one ensemble member. The National Hurricane Center describes a forecast model as an objective tool for predicting the future state of the atmosphere. Dynamical models solve the physical equations of the atmosphere on supercomputers, statistical models use historical relationships between storm behavior and details such as location and date, and ensemble or consensus models combine forecasts from several models.
Why the lines differ
Models differ tremendously in structure and complexity, from tools that run in seconds on an ordinary computer to ones that need hours on a supercomputer. Different models also start from different observations and run on different schedules, so their tracks spread out where the forecast is uncertain.
Which line is the European model, and which is the GFS
The European model is the ECMWF and the American model is the GFS, and either can be one of the lines on a spaghetti map. The National Hurricane Center lists the ECMWF as restricted for public use under data-provider agreements, so a free map may show only some of it. Check the legend for the model names and the time each one ran. Our guide to the European and GFS hurricane models covers which one has been more accurate.
What matters more than one line
A cluster can suggest agreement on a general direction. Wider spread indicates different possible outcomes, but the number of lines over a location is not a reliable probability of a direct hit.
Check the model run time
Guidance from different initialization times can reflect different observations. Always check the timestamp and distinguish an individual model from an ensemble member.
Use the official forecast
NHC forecasters evaluate observations and guidance together. Their forecast track and cone are different products from a spaghetti plot, and neither shows the full reach of hazards.
A dense bundle over one point does not mean that location has a matching landfall probability. Models have different structures, skill and initialization times.
Check your own location
See current official alerts and the impact for your ZIP code.
Common questions
What are spaghetti models?
Spaghetti plots show multiple model tracks or ensemble members. They visualize uncertainty and disagreement.
Is a spaghetti model line the official forecast?
No. No single model line is the official forecast. Use the NHC forecast, its issue time and local warnings for decisions.
Sources
Reviewed by the Storm Incoming editorial team on September 27, 2026. Follow local emergency officials if their instructions differ.