The forecast cone tracks the possible center. It does not show where coastal water will rise, and hurricane category does not measure surge risk.
Why surge is the deadliest hazard
The National Hurricane Center says storm surge is currently the leading cause of fatalities from hurricanes. It can travel up rivers and canals and reach well inland, and storm tides of up to 20 feet or more are possible in some cases. Waves on top of the surge can add more feet to the water level.
What decides how high the surge gets
Surge depends on storm intensity, forward speed, size, the angle at which the storm approaches the coast, and the shape of the coastline. Stronger and larger storms produce a higher surge. A faster storm produces a higher surge at the immediate coastline, while a slower storm pushes surge farther inland.
Storm surge watch and warning
A storm surge watch means life-threatening flooding from seawater pushing inland is possible in the area, generally within 48 hours. A storm surge warning means it is expected, generally within 36 hours.
Why track and impact are different
The center forecast describes where the cyclone center may travel. Coastal water impacts depend on storm size, intensity, angle of approach, coastline shape, bathymetry and tide timing.
Storm surge and storm tide
Storm tide combines the surge with the normal tide. Waves can add danger above that water level. Water may rise before the strongest winds arrive.
Prepare before water rises
Know your evacuation zone and follow emergency management instructions. Never drive into floodwater. Moving upstairs is not a substitute for an evacuation order when you have time to leave.
The cone is not an evacuation zone or flooding boundary. A place outside the cone can still have life-threatening surge, waves, rain or wind.
Check your own location
See current official alerts and the impact for your ZIP code.
Common questions
What is storm surge?
Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water generated by a storm, above the predicted astronomical tide.
Does the hurricane cone show where storm surge will happen?
No. The forecast cone tracks the possible center. It does not show where coastal water will rise, and hurricane category does not measure surge risk.
What is the difference between storm surge and storm tide?
Storm surge is the rise in water caused by the storm alone. Storm tide is the total rise from the surge plus the normal astronomical tide, and the National Hurricane Center says it can reach 20 feet or more in some cases. Waves on top of the surge add more height.
What do storm surge maps show?
The National Hurricane Center National Storm Surge Hazard Maps show how deep the water could get from a Category 1 to 5 hurricane, in 1-foot steps, along the Gulf and East Coasts, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and other areas. They do not replace official evacuation zones, which your local emergency management sets, so use them to see whether your area is at risk and then check your zone.
Is storm surge more dangerous than wind?
The National Hurricane Center says storm surge is currently the leading cause of hurricane deaths.
Sources
Reviewed by the Storm Incoming editorial team on September 27, 2026. Follow local emergency officials if their instructions differ.