What we know
The official outlook identifies an area where a tropical cyclone could form and gives probabilities for two time windows. The discussion explains the environmental setup.
Active development outlook
The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward
Stable outlook identity · atlantic
NHC / CPHC · Oct 6, 13:30 UTC
Official formation outlook
90%Within 48 hours
90%Within 7 days
What is developing?
the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. It is still too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this system. The NOAA Gulfstream is scheduled to sample the environment over the Gulf later today and an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow.
Formation probability describes cyclone development, not landfall or local impact probability.
Formation probability history
Each bar is a stored official outlook, shown oldest to newest.
90% / 90%
48 hours7 days
Read history as text
90% / 90%
What could change
Development can accelerate, stall or end as organization, wind shear and ocean conditions change. The highlighted area and probabilities can move between outlooks.