What we know
The official outlook identifies an area where a tropical cyclone could form and gives probabilities for two time windows. The discussion explains the environmental setup.
Active development outlook
Southwestern Gulf of America
Stable outlook identity · atlantic
NHC / CPHC · Oct 4, 01:00 UTC
Official formation outlook
0%Within 48 hours
20%Within 7 days
What is developing?
A broad area of low pressure could form in a few days over the southwestern Gulf of America. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur as it drifts over the southwestern Gulf waters.
Formation probability describes cyclone development, not landfall or local impact probability.
Formation probability history
Each bar is a stored official outlook, shown oldest to newest.
0% / 20%
48 hours7 days
Read history as text
0% / 20%
What could change
Development can accelerate, stall or end as organization, wind shear and ocean conditions change. The highlighted area and probabilities can move between outlooks.