What we know
The official outlook identifies an area where a tropical cyclone could form and gives probabilities for two time windows. The discussion explains the environmental setup.
Active development outlook
Subtropical Central Atlantic (Remnants of Fay)
Stable outlook identity · atlantic
NHC / CPHC · Oct 1, 20:30 UTC
Official formation outlook
10%Within 48 hours
10%Within 7 days
What is developing?
A low pressure area associated with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Fay is located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. While thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday, dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant re-development while it moves northwestward, to the east of Bermuda. Any formation chances should end by Sunday due to very strong upper-level winds.
Formation probability describes cyclone development, not landfall or local impact probability.
Formation probability history
Each bar is a stored official outlook, shown oldest to newest.
10% / 10%
48 hours7 days
Read history as text
10% / 10%
What could change
Development can accelerate, stall or end as organization, wind shear and ocean conditions change. The highlighted area and probabilities can move between outlooks.