What we know
The official outlook identifies an area where a tropical cyclone could form and gives probabilities for two time windows. The discussion explains the environmental setup.
Active development outlook
South of Guatemala
Stable outlook identity · eastern pacific
NHC / CPHC · Oct 6, 13:15 UTC
Official formation outlook
0%Within 48 hours
20%Within 7 days
What is developing?
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward around 10 mph.
Formation probability describes cyclone development, not landfall or local impact probability.
Formation probability history
Each bar is a stored official outlook, shown oldest to newest.
0% / 20%
48 hours7 days
Read history as text
0% / 20%
What could change
Development can accelerate, stall or end as organization, wind shear and ocean conditions change. The highlighted area and probabilities can move between outlooks.