What we know
The official outlook identifies an area where a tropical cyclone could form and gives probabilities for two time windows. The discussion explains the environmental setup.
Active development outlook
South of Southern Mexico
Stable outlook identity · eastern pacific
NHC / CPHC · Sep 29, 20:16 UTC
Official formation outlook
0%Within 48 hours
20%Within 7 days
What is developing?
An area of low pressure could form late this week or this weekend to the south of the southern coast of Mexico. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
Formation probability describes cyclone development, not landfall or local impact probability.
Formation probability history
Each bar is a stored official outlook, shown oldest to newest.
0% / 20%
48 hours7 days
Read history as text
0% / 20%
What could change
Development can accelerate, stall or end as organization, wind shear and ocean conditions change. The highlighted area and probabilities can move between outlooks.