Tropical Depression Pena spaghetti models model tracks compared
8 computer models are in this run. By 72 hours their forecast positions for Tropical Depression Pena spread up to about 61 nautical miles (70 miles) around their average. A wide spread means the track is less certain.
For decisions, follow the official NHC forecast for Tropical Depression Pena, not any single model line.
Model forecast tracks
Each line is one model's forecast center position for the next 5 days. The white line is the NHC official forecast.
Where each model puts Tropical Depression Pena
Forecast center position and winds, by hours from the model run.
| Model | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 96 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHC official forecast | 10.0N 177.0W, 30 mph | 10.3N 177.7E, 30 mph | — | — | — |
| Multi-model consensus (TVCN) | 9.9N 177.6W | 9.8N 177.0E | 9.3N 171.8E | 8.6N 167.9E | 9.6N 162.6E |
| GFS | 10.1N 177.4W, 30 mph | 10.1N 176.8E, 25 mph | 10.2N 171.6E, 25 mph | 10.6N 166.0E, 20 mph | 10.0N 159.1E, 20 mph |
| HWRF | 10.3N 177.7W, 35 mph | 9.4N 176.9E, 35 mph | 8.5N 172.5E, 30 mph | 8.6N 167.8E, 35 mph | 8.6N 163.0E, 35 mph |
| HAFS-A | 9.8N 177.2W, 35 mph | 9.5N 177.6E, 35 mph | 9.3N 172.8E, 30 mph | 9.1N 167.5E, 30 mph | 9.1N 162.4E, 30 mph |
| HAFS-B | 9.8N 176.3W, 35 mph | 10.5N 177.2E, 30 mph | 9.6N 171.8E, 25 mph | 9.5N 167.4E, 20 mph | 8.9N 162.0E, 20 mph |
| HMON | 9.8N 177.3W, 35 mph | 9.4N 176.7E, 30 mph | 8.8N 171.1E, 30 mph | 7.9N 166.0E, 25 mph | 7.6N 160.4E, 25 mph |
| COAMPS-TC | 9.8N 177.8W, 35 mph | 9.6N 176.4E, 30 mph | 8.4N 171.2E, 25 mph | 7.1N 169.0E, 30 mph | — |
| GEFS ensemble mean | 10.0N 177.6W, 30 mph | 9.8N 176.8E, 30 mph | 9.6N 171.7E, 25 mph | 9.7N 167.2E, 25 mph | 10.0N 162.8E, 25 mph |
Spread between models (largest distance from the model average): 24 h: 63 nm · 48 h: 47 nm · 72 h: 61 nm · 96 h: 145 nm · 120 h: 166 nm.
Model tracks come from the National Hurricane Center's public model guidance (early-cycle versions, as available at advisory time). They are not official forecasts and can change with every run. Learn more in our guide to spaghetti models.
← Tropical Depression Pena: official forecast, alerts and what to doCommon questions about spaghetti models
What are spaghetti models?
Spaghetti models plot the forecast tracks from many computer models on one map. Where the lines bunch together, forecasters have more confidence. Where they spread apart, the path is less certain.
Are spaghetti models the official forecast?
No. The official forecast is the National Hurricane Center's track and cone on the Tropical Depression Pena page. Individual models can be wrong, and the NHC weighs all of them.
Why do some models disagree?
Each model starts with slightly different data and handles the steering winds, wind shear and ocean heat differently. Small differences early on grow with time, so the lines usually spread out most at days 4 and 5.